Rethinking Security

REPORT: TERROR AND RESPONSE

Matt Yglesias:

One impediment to undertaking a reasonable response to 9/11 is that, psychologically speaking, it feels as if the response should somehow be proportionate to the devastating emotional impact of the attacks. And when you contemplate the possibility of something even more horrible, like a nuclear attack on a city, then it seems like the preventive measures taken should, again, be incredibly dramatic. And yet the nitty-gritty of serious non-proliferation policy is deadly dull.

This is indeed a serious problem. One purpose of terrorism as a whole (not just WMD terror) is to compel an overreaction. The burden of this reaction will fall on those the terrorists or insurgents hope to recruit. But while it is one thing for a policymaker to understand this on an intellectual basis, it's another to actively market proportional policy solutions to the an understandably aggrieved public with a need to see some form of security theater.

REPORT: ADAPTABILITY AND DEMOCRACY

Anyone who isn't aware of the work of Maj. Don Vandergriff should read his blog compulsively. Vandergriff has worked for many years on making the Army more resilient and adaptable in the face of Fourth Generation threats. Vandergriff recently has gone online, and has been blogging up a storm on adaptability.

I'd like to highlight this entry in particular, as Vandergriff goes beyond a strictly military-institutional analysis to show us how groupthink and cheerleading can erode the greater virtue and political fortunes of political cultures.

LOCAL VIEW: OLYPMICS PROTEST

There have been many posts on the Tibetan protests exploiting the run-up to the Olympics, many advancing the argument that the transnational Tibetan/NGO movement are employing open-source insurgency methods. I myself have posted on the challenges NGOs face in exerting pressure on the Chinese government.

Last weekend, however, I caught a small fragment of the larger NGO crusade against China.

In New York City for the weekend, I saw a huge pro-Tibet protest in Union Square. A local cab driver (no, I'm not going all Tom Friedman on you) told me that there had been various protests going on for at least a month.   

Union Square was jam-packed with protesters, many of them toting large Tibetan banners. While other reported Olympics-related protests focused on a broader spectrum of Chinese human rights issues, this one was exclusively focused on Tibet. Tibetan monks and the usual array of Western hippie/counterculture hangers-on were out in force and dominated the protest. A snap judgment? I agree with John Robb's assertion that the Tibetan/human rights push against China will burn itself out.

ANALYSIS: WIKILEAKS AND NGO INTELLIGENCE

As I read Julian Assange and crew's latest (they've managed to get some videos of Tibetan protest marches up), I had an interesting thought. Anyone familiar with Robert D. Steele's work on intelligence reform may be aware of his arguments for open-source intelligence (OSINT). Most people who follow security affairs who have heard of Steele reduce his thought down to OSINT, much in the same way people unfamiliar with John Boyd's full "Discourse" reduce his ideas down to the OODA loop. However, Steele also argues for a collective, people-powered intelligence system that can provide early warning for humanitarian, law enforcement, and environmental problems.

I'm not suggesting that Wikileaks represents the fulfillment of Steele's vision. But it does suggest that we are getting closer to it.

REPORT: THE STATE OF THE WAR AGAINST THE STATE

CHINA CLAMPS DOWN

In response to the recent protests, China is sealing off Tibet and expelling the foreign media. One wonders, however, whether China will go all the way and implement the "Hama model" and/or the Burmese approach I blogged about some months ago. See Strategist for a sophisticated discussion of China's mounting strategic difficulties in Tibet. 

KOSOVO PROTESTS

Serbian demonstrators are continuing to ramp up violence in northern Kosovo. Since the breakaway province declared independence last month, Serbs within a sliver of northern Kosovo have been a disruptive force, rioting and attacking multi-national forces and members of the ethnic Albanian majority. Serbian police officers and civil servants have also refused to recognize both Kosovo's government and the authority of the UN/NATO forces. Some believe that the northern Serbs will try to secede and join up with Serbia proper.

In the short term? Perhaps not. But the long-term prospects for Kosovo aren't good--they have fallen short of their goal of being recognized by 100 countries, Serbia refuses to accept their independence and could be involved in fomenting the northern unrest, and the UN/NATO troops may balk at the prospect of putting down a nationalist Serb revolt. Unless Kosovo can convince the northern Serbs to remain part of Kosovo or do something to dial down nationalist fervor, this scenario will become increasingly more likely.

KENYA POLL VIOLENCE WAS PLANNED

Little surprise here--the violence against the majority tribe was planned, says Human Rights Watch.

ANALYSIS: THE SPITZER TRAP

Former New York governor Eliot Spitzer's patronization of a high-class prostitute, at first glance, does not have much relevance to irregular warfare. When the scandal first broke, I traded jokes with a friend about Spitzer "supporting the arts" through his transactions with Ashley Dupre, who recorded Britney Spears/Christina Aguilera imitation music when she was not servicing rich and powerful men. In Los Angeles and New York, there are many people whose careers are delineated with a "slash"--actor/waiter, musician/tennis instructor, writer/tutor, but musician/prostitute is certainly uncommon!

However, as Spin Hunters details in this excellent post, there are many propaganda aspects to the scandal that suggests, at a minimum, that it may not have completely developed organically.

REPORT: CERTOPS.COM

Interesting site focused purely on prison tactical units and security. Lots of information and news related to both domestic and international prison security.

Prisons are a unique and bizarre category of operational space. They mirror aspects of the "real" world---prisons have their own economy (outside contraband and commissary provisions), complicated set of dueling ethnic/religious/criminal factions (see Bill Valentine's Gang Intelligence Manual for more information), and offer both legal and illegal means of social advancement (working hard for early release or selling drugs). Yet no one loses sight of the fact that prisons are claustrophobic, completely regimented, and authoritarian societies constructed for the sole purpose of isolating criminals from the outside world and punishing them for their misdeeds.

REPORT: STICKS AND STONES

Soob has a great new post detailing the devolution of the Kenyan conflict into tribal warfare, complete with bows and arrows. John Robb has also posted. There are very scary parallels to Rwanda, and one hopes that something can be done to stabilize the situation. That being said, Kenya's troubles do not amount purely to tribal competition. Economic discrimination and class resentment also motivates a great deal of the violence directed against the majority tribe. None of this is also exclusive to Third World or developing nations.

REVIEW: MILITARY CULTURE AND IRREGULAR WARFARE

Much material has been written about cultural factors that have challenged the Army's new focus on counterinsurgency, the most prominent of which is Air War College professor Jeffrey Record's "Cultural Barriers to Successful  Counterinsurgency" monograph for the Cato Institute. Rare, however, is the "COIN culture" study with true anthropological heft. Thankfully, the gap has been filled by Robert M. Cassidy's Counterinsurgency and the Global War on Terror: Military Culture and Irregular War.

LURCH

I recognize this is extremely late, but I'd like to recognize Lurch of Main and Central. He passed away close to a month ago. Not knowing him very well, I hesitated to put anything up until now, for fear it would sound cheap or cloying.

Lurch was the most prolific poster in the group milblog Main and Central. A no-nonsense Vietnam veteran, he provided  old-school grounding to the rather space-age talk of 4GW, 5GW, and netwar. Lurch's experiences and passionate sense of justice informed his often acerbic criticism of government policy and Pentagon corruption. Lurch's ribald sense of humor was always present in his posts, making light of the military-political cockups he so energetically denounced. I've had the good fortune to meet many fellow defense and foreign affairs bloggers in person, but I regret that I'll never have the opportunity to do so with Lurch.

I don't have any doubt that Lurch is in a better place--if they didn't let him into heaven, he probably would have put the pearly gates/Valhalla/Mt. Olympus under a sustained artillery barrage until they let him in. I wish him the best of luck, wherever he is.

Main and Central has a more comprehensive overview of Lurch's life, both analog and digital, in this post.