Amitai Etzioni, author of Security First, argues here that Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is more akin to a "mental patient" than a rational ruler. This may be true, but is largely irrelevant. Ultimate authority in Iran rests with unelected clerics, most prominent being the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khameini. Commentary on Iran's intentions usually precedes from the false assumption that Ahmadinejad is the one with the finger on the big red button--when for all intents and purposes he is a figurehead.
This interview in The Forward is a wonderful look into the internal dynamics of the Iranian state. As one defector explains, the Revolutionary Guard--the sword of revolution--has devolved into a kind of siloviki mafia. The clerics and government structure, while pushing for regional hegemony are wedded above all else to their power. The surest way to lose it would be to launch a nuclear strike on Israel or the United States.
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