Rethinking Security

REPORT: PHOTOSHOP POLITICS

This is a somewhat amusing story about Mexican politics and photoshop, via Harvard International Review Blog:

"Last week, Mexico’s federal electoral institute (IFE) was up in arms over a 'cloning' scandal. Mexican electoral law states that politicians may not 'politicize' the implementation of government programs by advertising them alongside photos of themselves. A creative mayor in the town of Toluca, a Mexico city suburb (actually located in the neighboring state of Mexico), decided to get around the law by using a stunt double, or 'clone,' as the press has been referring to it. ...A few days after the scandal broke, Mexican daily REFORMA interviewed the man behind the mayor’s publicity campaign. The publicist explained that he had used a local citizen who looked somewhat like the mayor, and then applied the magic of Photoshop to improve the similarities."

As hilarious as the situation is, it does illustrate the larger point that technology is changing electoral politics in surprising ways. Snopes.com is overloaded with election 2008 rumors, mainly untraceable chain emails that acquire a sheen of credibility with each person who hits the "forward" button. And the Internet was instrumental in the creation and growth of perhaps one of the most divisive and dangerous conspiracy theories (911 conspiracists), which has persisted despite numerous detailed technical refutations.

The problem for information operations (IO) and public diplomacy practitioners is the process of rebutting these kinds of tricks, especially in the context of local political cultures (such as the Middle East) in which conspiracy theory and political subterfuge are deeply rooted. New technology won't necessarily make their jobs easier, as the ease with which terrorists have utilized social network technology demonstrates. The answer may be, as Craig Hayden argues in the UC Public Diplomacy Blog, a kind of radical transparency.

REPORT: COPYCAT CLOUDS

Close to a month ago, a deranged individual went on a stabbing spree in Tokyo. The incident might not have been big news here but it certainly shocked the Japanese. Now, however, it appears that the Internet is full of threats to commit similar--or more gruesome--crimes. The science behind copycat crimes has never been conclusive--no one really knows whether the individuals who tend to commit them are already screwed up or whether the media attention creates a tipping effect.

What is novel is how online anonymity creates an outlet for sociopathic urges--and how those in cases like these the transmission of those urges seems to follow an emergent path. Manipulating and channeling copycat clouds virally would be a source of great power. It's already been done to some extent--many riots in the developing world are organized via text message. But it's not just a "Gap" problem. In Cronulla Beach, Australia, a wave of anonymous calls and text messages calling on white Australians to attack immigrants provoked a vicious race riot. There is a certain Puppetmaster potential inherent in the mobilizing power of media that so far has been largely untapped.

Crossposted to Dreaming 5GW.

REPORT: THE STATE OF THE WAR AGAINST THE STATE

CHINA CLAMPS DOWN

In response to the recent protests, China is sealing off Tibet and expelling the foreign media. One wonders, however, whether China will go all the way and implement the "Hama model" and/or the Burmese approach I blogged about some months ago. See Strategist for a sophisticated discussion of China's mounting strategic difficulties in Tibet. 

KOSOVO PROTESTS

Serbian demonstrators are continuing to ramp up violence in northern Kosovo. Since the breakaway province declared independence last month, Serbs within a sliver of northern Kosovo have been a disruptive force, rioting and attacking multi-national forces and members of the ethnic Albanian majority. Serbian police officers and civil servants have also refused to recognize both Kosovo's government and the authority of the UN/NATO forces. Some believe that the northern Serbs will try to secede and join up with Serbia proper.

In the short term? Perhaps not. But the long-term prospects for Kosovo aren't good--they have fallen short of their goal of being recognized by 100 countries, Serbia refuses to accept their independence and could be involved in fomenting the northern unrest, and the UN/NATO troops may balk at the prospect of putting down a nationalist Serb revolt. Unless Kosovo can convince the northern Serbs to remain part of Kosovo or do something to dial down nationalist fervor, this scenario will become increasingly more likely.

KENYA POLL VIOLENCE WAS PLANNED

Little surprise here--the violence against the majority tribe was planned, says Human Rights Watch.

REPORT: RUSSIA'S SEPARATE INTERNET

David Francis of FP Passport:

In the latest issue of FP, I wrote (subscription required) about the efforts of ICANN, the group that gives out Internet domain names, to "internationalize" the Web. Starting this year, ICANN will allow users to use non-Roman characters in top level domain names. For example, Arabic-speaking users will no longer have to end Web addresses in ".com"—they can register the last part of their Web address in their own native language. ...

Despite ICANN's efforts to incorporate Russian alphabet characters into Web addresses (it is one of 11 sets of characters the group is incorporating), Moscow is pushing for the creation of an Internet that recognizes only Cyrillic characters. Experts [warn of] increased international isolation and more government censorship of the Web.

Russia is obviously trying to create an easier censorship apparatus. Given the disorganization and weakness of the political opposition, censoring their web sites will remove their last remaining strength. As I noted in a post on Burma, dictatorships have caught on to the effect of the internet as a force multiplier for dissident movements and are preparing counter-measures.

The Kremlin also derives another important benefit from this policy. The Russian people feel victimized by the West, which they believe disregarded their legitimate national interests. Putin's strong-man measures are marketed as nationalistic self-strengthening, the 21st century equivalent of Peter the Great's modernization. In a Russia desperate to demonstrate its strength and independence, establishing a separate Russian internet is sure to play well with the public's patriotic mood.

REPORT: CURBING TERRORIST USAGE OF THE INTERNET

Mark Burgess of the World Security Institute has a great op-ed in SECUER on terrorist usage of the Internet. As Burgess writes, current European Union policy on counter-terrorism is purely reactive in nature: criminalizing the possession of terrorist tactical training manuals and cracking down on online incitement to jihad. However, these steps are insufficient to combat the real nature of the problem.

REPORT: INFORMATION DYSFUNCTION

National Defense Magazine has an interesting look at the Army's struggle to build a "network-centric" force. The higher-end command and control (C2) technology is reserved for those higher up the command chain. As a result, soldiers on patrol cannot access useful data and can only communicate with their superiors with voice radios. Commanders also are denied real-time tactical information that better C2 technology could provide.

The article also looks at the progress of the Future Combat Systems (FCS) program, which the Army seeks to deploy by 2015. FCS is expected to create a totally flat network and provide a single source of operational and tactical data. By doing so, the Army hopes to create a faster, resilient, and adaptable network. However, as Maj. Don Vandergriff notes, creating an adaptable organization requires more than technology.  Without giving individual soldiers the initiative required to exploit such data, the Army is wasting its money.

ARTICLE: CYBERWARFARE COMES OF AGE

I have a new piece on the Defense and the National Interest blog about cyber-strategy.

REPORT: DRAINING THE DIGITAL SEA

The OpenNet Initiative has produced a chilling report about the Burmese military regime’s total takedown of electronic communications. The regime (like many other authoritarian governments), has always censored political content. But the government’s response to the Fall 2007 protests is shocking even by its own standards. As OpenNet notes:

The targets for censorship expanded exponentially from Web sites that are critical of the junta to any individual with a camera or cell phone and direct or indirect access to the Internet.

The military junta correctly understood that the revolt’s center of gravity was its reliance on electronic media. The junta’s command of a ruthless and disciplined security and surveillance regime was more than sufficient to subdue the rebellious monks and students. However, electronic media such as blogs, cell phone cameras, and email focused disproportionate attention on the regime’s injustices, raising the specter of foreign interference.

Most ominous for the military regime, however, was the role electronic media played in organizing the protests and amplifying their domestic effect.