Rethinking Security

REPORT: PHILADELPHIA FAILURE

Remember a while back when the Philadelphia municipal government called for 10,000 men to take to the streets to ward off violent crime? Looks like that didn't work so well:

"The organizers of the 10,000 Men movement initially talked about squads of volunteer peacekeepers patrolling three nights a week in high-crime neighborhoods all over Philadelphia. The reality is much more modest.

There are still no street patrols; organizers concede they have only a few hundred reliable volunteers."

The problem with using ad-hoc structures to build resilience is that poor organization (inherent in their emergent structure) often dooms the effort. Additionally, as anyone who has studied the militia system of the Revolutionary War might recognize, militia members are often fickle and lack the discipline and organization of regular forces. The organizers of the 10,000 Man movement would have been better served by aiming for a smaller group that could act in concert with the police--the logistics of tracking, organizing, and commanding 10,000 untrained civilians in regular patrols proved too demanding for them.

(H/T Tacitus of Small Wars Council)

REPORT: RECESSION AND STRATEGY

Sam Liles has an interesting post about the strategic consequences we may face should today's economic troubles mutate into full-blown economic collapse. I especially agree with his contention that economic weakness will be exploited by adversaries seeking to cement gains in other areas. The major of theme of Paul Kennedy's The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers is the linkage between economic power and geostrategic power projection. An overstretched great power facing economic difficulties will find it difficult to maintain its baseline level of strength across the world. While I don't necessarily buy Kennedy's declinist argument (which was dated even when the book came out in the 80s), it's an important thing to think about.

Bin Laden has explicitly declared that he views our economy as our center of gravity, and regional powers will take advantage of American weakness--real or perceived--to reach for hegemony. It's not hard to imagine Hu Jintao and Vladimir Putin carefully following Wall Street forecasts with the obsessiveness of Gordon Gekko.

REPORT: ADAPTABILITY AND DEMOCRACY

Anyone who isn't aware of the work of Maj. Don Vandergriff should read his blog compulsively. Vandergriff has worked for many years on making the Army more resilient and adaptable in the face of Fourth Generation threats. Vandergriff recently has gone online, and has been blogging up a storm on adaptability.

I'd like to highlight this entry in particular, as Vandergriff goes beyond a strictly military-institutional analysis to show us how groupthink and cheerleading can erode the greater virtue and political fortunes of political cultures.

ANALYSIS: ON FORGETTING THE OBVIOUS

My own interest in issues of war and peace began with Robert D. Kaplan’s writings for the Atlantic Monthly. Kaplan’s powerful depictions of life in the Third World demonstrate just how privileged we are to live in America.

Just south of the border, policemen, government officials, and even popular celebrities are murdered with impunity by cartel gunmen, guerrillas target energy resources, and corruption reigns supreme. Mexico, however, is mild compared to the Hobbesian wasteland of the greater Global South.

ARTICLE: NIGHT OF THE LONE WOLVES

I have a new essay on Defense and the National Interest concerning the debate about "super-empowered individuals." For anyone unfamiliar with the blogospheric and print discourse on this subject, see this primer by Zenpundit.

REPORT: DEVELOPING FIRST RESPONDER CAPABILITY

According to National Defense Magazine, law enforcement agencies are increasingly turning to military training programs to prepare themselves for terrorist attacks. These exercises simulate a host of urban combat situations that were once largely the province of SWAT. 

Developing a robust first responder capability is crucial, as the first line of defense against terrorism and "street insurgency" is the local beat cop. As William S. Lind notes, this could account for police interest in learning about alternative strategic theory. I can attest to this, having met several policemen working in gang intelligence units who had studied John Boyd’s "Patterns of Conflict" slides on Defense and the National Interest.

However, these simulations in themselves aren’t enough. Free-play exercises, tactical decision games, and vigorous red-team exercises are needed in order to build the kind of organizational flexibility required for dealing with asymmetric threats. A presidential candidate looking to get ahead of the pack on national security would be well advised to pitch a plan about funding more free-ranging and immersive exercises to help better prepare America’s first responders.