Strategist wonders whether we are overlooking Dubai as a source of possible Mideast instability due to our Iraq-Iran fixation. It's a fair question, as the UAE isn't on anyone's crisis maps. The UAE is a classic rentier state--oil profits give the population a comfortable existence. Its' leadership, like that of many similar small Gulf states, have played the region's great powers off against each other and achieved a modicum of security. On the cultural front, the monarchy has bought off many potential opponents. The problem is, as Coming Anarchy's Curzon observes, Dubai's rising economic inequality and growing resentment of rich, hedonistic, and powerful foreigners may provide the impetus for unrest. I also would cast into question the ability of the UAE's rulers to continue to navigate an independent course between rival regional powers, especially if Iran is attacked by the United States or Israel.
Thanks for the mention, Adam. And good to read all the analysis that you are putting up.
Posted by: Kotare | July 26, 2008 at 03:57 PM