Despite the cease-fire it appears that Russia is still menacing Georgia. Danger Room (quoting NYT story) reports that Russian soldiers are still occupying Gori, perhaps scouting for a possible buffer region. Meanwhile, there are reports (h/t FP Passport) that irregular soldiers backed by Russian troops are moving through border regions in Georgia, looting villages with no resistance from the Georgian military.
The main conventional war is over, but the dispute is far from finished. Georgia and Russia could engage in an irregular war of attrition--similar to the one that Georgia and Russia had over South Ossetia before the war but conducted on Georgia proper's soil. South Osssetian and Abkhazian irregulars may raid inside Georgia on pillaging missions, and there is the possibility of internal terrorism. With a Russian presence in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, however, there will be no Georgian raids of hot pursuit. Meanwhile, Russia itself is likely to continue economic and political coercion against Georgia with random helpings of cyber-operations. In such a scenario, Russia would press against Georgia until it renders it a virtual puppet state.
This outcome, however, is questionable due to the antipathy Georgians hold for Russia--a feeling of independence that goes back to the days of the Tsars. So the irregular war of attrition may continue for a while.
Comments