Georgia and the United States are negotiating a strategic partnership agreement that will bring relations between the two countries to a "new stage," President Mikheil Saakashvili said Monday. "We are in the process of negotiating a US-Georgia strategic partnership agreement. Our relations are moving toward a completely new stage," Saakashvili said in televised remarks. "The United States has never before said that Georgia is its strategic partner," he added.
If Saakashvili's sorry attempt to pre-emptively take South Ossetia is a preview of what it can bring to the table as America's "strategic partner," I'll take a pass, thank you. We are being dragged closer and closer into Georgia's losing quarrel with Russia, something that we will regret. Not that we shouldn't resist Putin's encroachments in other areas, but we should not bind ourselves to defending Georgia. Saakashvili may see himself as the Israel or the Taiwan of Central Asia, but in reality he is one of many tinpot dictators with delusions of grandeur and a short fuse. He has only himself to blame for the way Russia is currently strong-arming him, and we should not risk our power, credibility, and money to get him out of a hole he is still digging.
The US is working on the idea of ferrying cargo for Afghanistan via the Black Sea to the port of Poti in Georgia and then dispatching it through the territories of Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. A branch line could also go from Georgia via Azerbaijan to the Turkmen-Afghan border.
The project, if it materializes, will be a geopolitical coup - the biggest ever that Washington would have swung in post-Soviet Central Asia and the Caucasus. At one stroke, the US will be tying up military cooperation at the bilateral level with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
Furthermore, the US will be effectively drawing these countries closer into NATO's partnership programs. Georgia, in particular, gets a privileged status as the key transit country -- All roads lead out of Afghanistan
Posted by: Cannoneer No. 4 | December 23, 2008 at 12:24 AM
That route seems relatively easy for the Russians to disrupt if Poti is the entry point, but it is true that given supply difficulties in Pakistan we should be looking for alternate routes. I also question, however, the "coup" nature of this--as many of the other countries may be playing both ends of the table for their own benefit.
The root of the problem though, is that we take a big risk by putting a strategic tripwire over Georgia. Its political class is immature and has revanchist dreams, they are easy for Putin to manipulate and provoke. And should Russia cross the tripwire we are faced with the choice of escalation or forfeiting our military credibility.
Posted by: A.E. | December 23, 2008 at 09:31 AM