Zimbabwe, already internationally isolated and wracked with grotesque poverty, is now being ravaged by cholera. 60,000 may have been infected and 3,000 have already died. It is clear that Robert Mugabe's singularly strong personality is the only thing that is holding the country together--and even that may not be enough. There is a strong possibility that Zimbabwe may collapse during his term. After his death there is an even higher probability of sytematic failure. The security organs, a massive presence in the country, create a kind of mechanical solidarity necessary to hold the rapidly collapsing state together, but security is based on economic and political power. Both have limits that Zimbabwe is on the verge of breaching.
The biggest loser will be South Africa, the nation expected to absorb the migrants likely to emerge from such a societal collapse. This consideration, as well as a sentimental attachment to Mugabe's brand of post-colonial politics, was what motivated South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki to block all attempts by the West and regional adversaries to bring Mugabe to account. But the appeasement, not surprisingly, has only made the problem worse. If and when Zimbabwe does burst, his nation will reap the whirlwind for its support of Zimbabwe.
South Africa, though by far one of the most prosperous and stable nations in Africa, faces its own problems of poverty and governance. It is by no means prepared to absorb the fallout. Mbeki might have given his nation a chance to hedge against such a failure by bringing his influence to bear on Mugabe. Instead, Mbeki chose to protect a dictator determined to hold onto power at the cost of his own country's basic political-economic integrity. Unfortunately, it seems that South Africa will pay the price for Mbeki's hubris.
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