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January 03, 2009


Smitten Eagle

I'm not willing to write any postmortem on 4GW yet. Many seem to think that it's still emerging (including Lind & Hammes)

5GW? Ha! I'll be happy to write a pre-mortem on that stillborn mass, however!


SE, this isn't a postmortem, just a recognition of a problem. It is, however, a postmortem of 5GW.


Adam, I'm with you on the presumed decline of the state. I also think the root of problem with 4GW thinking is that thinkers are seeing 4GW every time they see insurgency and I don't think that is neccessarily true.

As for 5GW. I don't know if it is ready for a post-mortem. I do think it suffers from me-tooism and too much assumption that the enemy will have every advantage (hence 5GW theories based on WMD, fundamentalism and Super-empowerment). I have always approached 5GW from the premise that it will be the counter to 4GW and that it will naturally be the tool of the state (or non-state actors who find advantage in the existence of the state) to promote stability.

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