Iraqization

Interesting NYT article on withdrawal process:

"No doubt, many Iraqi military and police units are competent enough to operate on their own, but most military analysts who have studied the matter will concede that many if not most still are not. 'We need to extend the SOFA' — the Status of Forces Agreement between Iraq and America — 'to 2020, 2025,' said Qassim Daoud, an independent Shiite legislator and former national security adviser.

He said he believed that the current deadline for total withdrawal, the end of 2011, is unattainable, even though Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki insisted on it when the agreement was negotiated with President George W. Bush last year. 'I just hope the prime minister realizes we don’t have competent security forces yet.'"

As a famous American once said, you make do with what you have. As usual, there is the dodgy historical analogy (Vietnamization) inserted in. It would seem based on past precedent that the risk is not so much a Vietcong-style takeover (no one is able to play the role of North Vietnam, something that those making the analogy to seem to forget) but a protracted low-grade sectarian and factional struggle among competing power centers. In such contests influence over security forces is an important objective, perhaps equal to more so than control over oil revenues.
Among the security forces, the Iraqi government does have an important ace in the hole: specialized units absolutely loyal to the executive branch that could be quickly operationalized for dirty war.