The Trump Card

This is the single most important factor that none of the NGOs villifying China for its non-response to the Burma crackdown actually considered:

"While the [Chinese Navy] may be able to contest control of its immediate coastal waters, its capabilities fall off rapidly with distance. If the United States wanted tomorrow to constrict China’s maritime access to oil, minerals and markets, there would be very little Beijing could do in direct response. Chinese strategists are acutely aware of this potential vulnerability and they are hard at work on a variety of projects which, taken together, may help to mitigate the danger. Included among these are: a strategic petroleum reserve; transcontinental pipelines to Russia and Central Asia; the pursuit of undersea resources close to China’s coasts; new transportation routes through Southeast Asia that would permit oil and gas from the Middle East to bypass the narrow straits off Indonesia; the construction of ports and airfields in Myanmar and Pakistan that could be used in an emergency by a future Chinese air and naval 'rapid-deployment force'; a deepening strategic relationship with Iran that could provide a bridgehead to the Persian Gulf; and the development of aircraft carriers and long-range nuclear-powered attack submarines, and the construction of large numbers of diesel subs, which will give the PLAN some capacity to defend China’s sea-lanes and perhaps to attack the shipping of its rivals.."

The Chinese are trying to outflank us through Burma, which they would be dumb if they did not consider at one point in time. Geopolitics and geostrategy's utility has been overrated both as a method of strategy and a method of analysis, but analysts should not discount it entirely in explaining the behavior of great powers.

Comments

[Account Deleted]

Also, China has been quietly filling in where the U.S., focused on Iraq & Afghanistan, have ignored. Africa, South America...

I once considered the possibility that, from a 5GWish perspective, China had been behind encouragement or facilitation for the MidEast campaigns, as a) a distracting maneuver, b) economic warfare maneuver, c) a Global Village maneuver (to turn world opinion against the U.S.

But on the other hand, they could be doing what would-be superpowers tend to do: look for opportunities naturally arising.

[Account Deleted]

Note: when I mention "encouragement or facilitation" I mean, for AQ etc. China certainly has its own issues re: Islamists; but facilitating the activities of others would not be ipso facto a bad ploy, from a 5GW p.o.v.

China certainly has a long term view of things though, whatever it is or is not doing.

[A.E.]

The Mideast has been the chief area of US concern for nearly ten years. And little has really came out of it.

[YT]

Re: "China has been quietly filling in where the U.S., focused on Iraq & Afghanistan, have ignored. Africa, South America..."

Curtis: It's Classic Weiqi (囲碁), dude. Ain't somethin' new. That dead prick, Mao of china was familiar with it.

[A.E.]

By the way, YT, you should check out a monograph called "Doctrine Makes Readiness: Interpreting Chinese Military Power." Really good overview.

[YT]

A.E.,

Thanks dude, sure will.