War is Over (If You Want It?)

Kotare expands on my thoughts on war termination, decisive wars and peace. His post is rich with insights, but I'd like to build on one thought in particular:

"Where you stand will determine when you see a war starting and finishing. In the West, we separate the Soviet-Afghan War (1979-89) from the current Afghan War (2001 - present). But al-Qaeda will see things completely differently. To them there is no distinction. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the Western invasion of Afghanistan - these are merely events in one struggle against Western infidels in Afghanistan."

A critical aspect of war termination is whether or not the defeated power accepts that they have lost. And even so, the immediate acceptance of defeat is no guarantee of future peace. To a defeated power seething for revenge or redress, long periods of peace are but an interlude in a long war. That was certainly an aspect of how the French felt in 1914 regarding their humiliating loss in 1870.

It is also tragic how demagogues can skillfully weave old mythos into new hatreds, as Slobadan Milosevic and his allies did in the former Yugoslavia. While Milosevic's ultimate goals were more mundane and greedy, he was able to successfully spin an inflammatory narrative that placed the latest Balkan civil war as one battle in a long war. We all know the result.

The problem is not "ancient hatreds" but how they are exploited by charismatic individuals, feed into larger national myths and coincide with larger events and processes. We aren't automatons driven to fight our neighbor because his ancestor conquered ours three hundred years ago. But outrage, hatred, humiliation and revenge are fungible and renewable assets that can sometimes sadly be remade with the same ease that a popular DJ might cut up and remix a decades old hit record into a modern chart-topper.

Finally, a small (but fanatical) terrorist group such as al-Qaeda will grow more--not less--entrenched within its own distorted ideology of victimhood even as it becomes more marginalized. And it will continue fighting until the last of its operatives are captured or killed.