(h/t Paul McCleary) Alma Guillermoprieto has a must-read new piece in the New York Review of Books on Mexico's drug war:
Without the rest of the world paying much attention, the tortured relations between drug traffickers and the rest of the Mexican population have taken a significant turn. Following a series of hair-raising events over the past few weeks, it appears that the government of Felipe Calderón may be preparing to replace its aggressive military campaign against the drug trade with a rather different policy—opening the door to a previously unthinkable debate about legalizing drugs. Either that, or the administration is losing its bearings at an even faster rate than we had supposed.
The shift in the Mexican government's military policy followed a set of nasty incidents that included the videotaped executions of police by narcos, a prison revolt, and a hostage crisis whose somewhat dubious resolution proved extremely damaging for the government's already battered credibility. As Guillermoprieto notes, pressure is building for legalization of drugs and (it seems) the relaxation of the military campaign. The Calderón government has been taking some tentative steps in this direction, including convening a blue-ribbon panel to examine possible shifts in drug war strategy.
The genesis of this emerging elite consensus has been apparent to Mexico-watchers for a while. The public perception (and sad reality) of the government's inability to stem the violence as well as its role in ever more byzantine inter-cartel warfare has substantially weakened the government's strategy of tactical attrition of cartels. The stasis that's set in over the last year in the drug war could be eroding, and events with substantial policy implications for the U.S. may be in the cards.
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