Why "1984" Is a Legacy Future

George Orwell's 1984 is a great novel and a terrifying vision of totalitarian society. But it's as poor futurism as any of H.G. Wells' biggest bloopers--as fantastic and unrealistic as time travel, flying cars, or Klingons. It's a legacy future that is holding us back.

Legacy futures, according to Jamais Cascio, are old visions of the future that have thoroughly colonized our minds so much that we cannot help but make reference to them in our thoughts about both the future and the present. The frequent statement that defense thinkers are "stuck in the Cold War" is an implicit accusation of a legacy future.

1984 made a bold prediction based on Orwell's observation of the Soviet Union and other totalitarian states: modern technology, political and otherwise, would enable a regime to completely control its subjects, right down to their very inner thoughts. Because, as O'Brien famously told Winston, the regime could control the past, it could also make its own reality. This dark vision of the future has been so persuasive that it has been echoed numerous times in products as diverse as V for Vendetta to The Matrix. So what happened in real life?

It turns out that maintaining a truly totalitarian state built on thought control and a massive security apparatus is impossibility difficult. By Robert Heinlein's 1960 trip to the Soviet Union, it was already beginning a 30-year cycle of terminal decay. If you want to maintain a truly 1984-like state, you have to rule a tiny, isolated hermit kingdom like North Korea that is completely disconnected and living in a state of perpetual famine and poverty.

The Soviet Union is now a thing of the past. The "non-free" world is now a mix of corrupt mafia-states, authoritarian caudillo states, and authoritarian modernizing states, failing states, and failed states. In other words, little new at all. No "thoughtcrime." China maintains a large apparatus of control, but its citizens are far from brainwashed. Many are satisfied with their material lot, are nationalistic, or just are afraid of the future. Again, nothing new or exciting about that.

It is fashionable in some circles to invoke the specter of1984 whenever they see security impinging on their rights. In doing so, they explicitly compare democratic societies--however imperfect--to Big Brother. So it's tough to get a proper balance between liberty and security? Again, nothing new or ground-breaking. We live in very free societies, and we are extremely lucky to do so. And all one has to do is examine the course of human history to see just how rare and special our freedom is. Or you could get on a plane to Pyongyang, Tehran, Havana, or Caracas and see how quickly you come running back home.

So why is 1984 still regarded as some prophetic tale of future tyranny? Because it is a legacy future. It is stuck in our minds, because it is such a vivid image and because George Orwell is also a really awesome writer. It's time to consign 1984 to the historical dustbin, where it belongs, along with John Carter of Mars, 40,000 Leagues under the Sea, and War of the Worlds.

Comments

[Laura Donovan]

There will never be a thought police, but new technologies have definitely infringed upon the privacy of Americans. Companies will certainly think twice before hiring the young college graduate who is tagged in 500 fraternity party photographs on Facebook. Even so, he has a better fate than that of a powerless, Facebook-free middle eastern woman.

The U.S. has many rules, some of which come across as arbitrary and unnecessary to its citizens. Alcohol may not be served to anyone under the age of 21. Euthanasia is illegal. Regardless of how you may feel about these sample restrictions, the U.S. is a country of much liberty.

[A.E.]

Well said.

[Peter@Archipelago]

I'm not ready to consign Nineteen Eighty-Four to the dust bin just yet.

For one thing, it's a superb commentary on the human condition: ultimately, we are alone, and can trust only ourselves, and even that can be in doubt. Shalamov, in Kolyma Tales, has the same message.

Tyrants, whether in business, bureaucracies, or totalitarian regimes, try to make each of us alone. That's a message as relevant now, in modern capitalist societies, as it was for Europe in the dark aftermath of World War Two. Anyone who works in a government bureaucracy or a corporation will see echoes of Orwell in their own existence.

[A.E.]

There are echoes of all number of things in day-to-day life. But the specific future that Orwell described is a product of a very limited time and place. It is not a book about petty tyrants in the workplace and it is also not a book about even the kind of tyrant with Ray-Bans and a tank that rules over most despotic countries.

That being said, as a pure work of art it is a very beautiful commentary on the human condition, and the scene at the end with O'Brien's lecture to Winston is one the most memorable scenes in 20th century literature.

[A.E.]

By the way, nice photos in your travel blog. Looks very relaxing!

[Peter@Archipelago]

Thanks. Yep, Vanuatu is a fantastic place to visit.

Re. Orwell - I think you're in danger of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Sure, Orwell's Nineteen Eighty-Four hasn't come about. But it was more a warning about totalitarianism, specifically Stalinist USSR, which generations of fellow travellers in the west had whitewashed, rather than a specific prediction about the future.

In any case, name me an imagined future which has come about precisely, largely, or even partly, as predicted. Certainly, none of today's charlatans who style themselves as futurists, will do any better. The value of imagined futures, dsytopian or otherwise, lies in the ideas they generate about present conditions, or the broad and deep thinking about the future that they inspire.

[A.E.]

That's what I mean - the USSR is over, and history shows that the model critically failed. North Korea is the only state that meets Orwell's criteria, and it isn't as much a state as just an Army that feeds vampirically off a small group of press-ganged camp followers.

"Animal Farm," on the other hand, has aged so well that it could have been (sadly) written yesterday.